Future of the Republican Party

There are no clear favorites to become the 2012 Republican presidential nominee. All of the candidates are flawed politicians that would have a lot of trouble defeating an incumbent president. Mike Huckabee would have a lot of trouble winning any states outside of the South. Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich only appeal to the “Tea Party” wing of the Republican Party. Mitt Romney will have trouble energizing the conservative base because of his Mormonism and the universal healthcare bill that he signed into law as a governor. Barack Obama proved himself as a skilled campaigner and it will be tough for any of the current candidates to build a big enough coalition to take him on.

Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are two candidates who appeal to two very different types of voters. Moderates and fiscal conservatives will vote for Romney, but might never dream of voting for Gingrich, while Gingrich appeals to social conservatives that would never vote for a Mormon. These candidates represent the two wings of the Republican Party. On the one hand, they have the new radical “Tea Party” that helped them to win back the House of Representatives. On the other, there are the moderate fiscal conservatives that might be socially liberal. Republicans will never be happy with the candidate that they nominate because it will be impossible for anybody to appeal to a majority of the party.

There is going to be a war for the heart of the party in the coming years. I don’t think it is possible for the two sides to coexist in a party that can only nominate one person for president. The ongoing budget debate is a perfect example of the battles to come. The Tea Party side of the party believes that they have a voter mandate to drastically cut government spending and have been, so far, unwilling to compromise. The moderates have been trying to avoid a government shutdown and have been willing to keep funding for some programs that Democrats have wanted. It will be interesting to see who wins this battle and what its effect on the makeup of the Republican Party will be.

If the Tea Partiers succeed and make the Republicans much more conservative, they will have a lot of trouble ever getting a president elected. The moderates will most likely leave the party and vote for the Democrat who, to them, seems like the lesser of two evils. For a decade or so, I believe that the Democrats would experience an increase in party membership, Senate seats, and years served as president. If the moderates succeed, it is unclear what the Tea Partiers will do. It is always possible that they create their own party and run candidates. I think that they would not have a wide enough base to ever win a national election.

As the government shutdown gets closer and closer without a resolution, it seems to be clear that the Tea Partiers are drawing a line in the sand. They are drawing a hardline, but it is unclear how the American public will view a government shutdown and who they will blame. The leaders of the Republican Party face a major decision in the coming months with the Tea Party. It will decide the future of American politics.