Libya: A Presidential Gamble

  AP Photo

Barack Obama’s initial decision to get militarily involved in Libya was never the most popular in the United States. Polling numbers were not overwhelming and the voters made it clear that they were only cautiously optimistic about Obama’s handling of Libya. A poll conducted by CNN showed a 70% approval rating for the president’s handling of the situation* There is significant downside in Obama’s gamble because he faces criticism from both sides of the aisle. Liberals have been complaining about the cost to the taxpayer of getting our military involved in a third war and conservatives have criticized the lack of established goals and exit strategy. For once, criticism has not been split across party lines.

             * It is well-established that the public supports for wars are highest at the beginning, before starting a slow decline. Meaning that no matter what, his Libya approval ratings will drop.

As Obama starts to gear up for his fight for re-election, he has lost his majority in the House of Representatives in the slaughter of the 2010 midterms. He has to find a find a way to rally his base and close the enthusiasm gap. Liberals are never going to use a war as a way to rally around their candidate. One of the major reasons that he won the 2008 election was the historic turnout of African-Americans and other liberals. He may not find the same turnout from the black population because it will no longer be an historic election. The president is going to have a hard time getting re-elected without seeing a rebound in the turnout rate of Democrats. On the other hand, the Republicans have found a way to get their voters to show up at the polls. The Tea Party movement has re-energized a base that was apathetic as recently as 2008. Although candidates like Newt Gingrich* and Sarah Palin** have very high negatives, they could find themselves on the right side of the enthusiasm gap as a result of Libya.

               *Gingrich may have his own problems concerning Libya because of his constant flip-flopping.

               **Granted, Sarah Palin becoming the Republican nominee should encourage Democrats to return to the polls.

                It is my own personal belief that Libya will not become too big of a problem for Obama as long as the coalition continues to achieve their goals. However, if American soldiers start to die and Gaddafi holds on to power, I foresee a major problem for the president. If the war becomes a “quagmire”, I believe that Obama will have made a huge electoral mistake. I see no way that Obama can re-energize his base with a third unpopular war (and one that he started). Liberals will never turnout in huge droves for Obama if he continues to support an unpopular war. Conservatives are never going to vote for Obama, period. He would be gambling that he can win a national election with a coalition of only moderates. Given how energized the “far right” currently is, it is a very dangerous proposition for him and one that could lead to the election of a Republican president.

CNN Political Unit. "CNN Poll: Most Support No Fly Zone in Libya but Not Ground Troops – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs." CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs. 21 Mar. 2011. Web. 29 Mar. 2011. <http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/21/cnn-poll-most-support-no-fly-zone-in-libya-but-not-ground-troops/>.

Picture from the Associated Press